In today’s episode of the Dust Safety Science podcast, we’re diving into a frequently asked help desk question: What is the market size for dust explosions in the United States?
This episode is a response to numerous inquiries about the market size and the number of operations in the U.S. that might be affected by combustible dust. We’ll not only answer this question but also explore the market size for dust explosions on a global scale. We’ll compare our findings and discuss whether we believe the numbers are larger or smaller than the real exposure to entities that handle flammable dust.
While we haven’t conducted an exhaustive and detailed market analysis on the subject, there are some figures available that begin to shed light on the level of exposure to combustible dust. Specifically, we can analyze the number of employees who could be affected by dust explosions. Additionally, we’ll touch on industries worldwide that share these characteristics.
Determining the market size for dust explosions in the U.S. isn’t a straightforward task. A comprehensive analysis would require an industry-by-industry examination of the potential hazards linked to combustible dust, and the likelihood of dust explosions occurring. While achievable, this method would undoubtedly be time-consuming.
Lessons from the 2009 OSHA Proposed Rule for Combustible Dust
Fortunately, some of this groundwork has already been laid through the 2009 OSHA Proposed Rule For Combustible Dust, offering a more direct approach to understanding the subject. Under Section One- Background, Subsection A – Introduction, you can find a revealing excerpt. It highlights a table outlining how the number of U.S. employees working in industries with known dust explosion incidents over a 28-30 year period was determined. Let me share an abbreviated version of this excerpt.
The industries identified as having combustible dust hazards include, but are not limited to, agriculture, animal food manufacturing, grain handling, food manufacturing, wood products, chemical textiles, furniture manufacturing, metal processing, fabricated mill products and machinery, pesticides, pharmaceutical tire manufacturing, rubber and plastic production, recycling, wastewater treatment, and coal handling and processing.
To pinpoint which industries might be impacted by an OSHA standard regulating combustible dust hazards, OSHA identified those with previous incidents of combustible dust. Tables in the document summarize this data. The information was gathered using records from the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board for incidents occurring from 1980 to 2005, plus four incidents between 2006 and 2008.
Additionally, OSHA used reports from the now-defunct website dustexplosions.blogspot.com, a site that ceased operation a few years before our incident database was established. We only became aware of the now-defunct website dustexplosions.blogspot.com after we began running our incident database and discovered they were engaged in a similar endeavor of collecting information. Their data, coupled with that from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board covering 1980 to 2008, was used to produce the table displayed in the document.
The document further explains how OSHA assigned a National American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code to each incident based on the information available. By grouping similar incidents together, the NAICS codes in this table were determined. Cases where there was insufficient information to assign a code were classified as unknown.
Here’s where it gets interesting: OSHA’s preliminary analysis reveals that, in industries where combustible dust fires and explosions have occurred, there are 426,000 establishments employing 16 million workers. In addition, the table also notes that these industries encompass over 333,000 small businesses, employing 6.5 million workers.mSo, during the 28-year period from 1980 to 2008, among the industries or NAICS codes with reported dust explosion incidents, a staggering 16 million U.S. workers were employed in those sectors.
It’s essential to point out, as the document does in its conclusion, that not all establishments in these industries may have significant dust hazards. This nuance adds complexity to the data but doesn’t diminish the importance of understanding the broad reach of this issue.
How Complete is This List?
An essential question we’ll address later is the completeness of this list. Dust explosions are known to be significantly underreported, possibly by a factor of ten or more in the United States. While we don’t have a precise idea of the extent of underreporting, we know that it exists. Many of these underreported incidents likely belong to industries already included in this NAICS code evaluation. However, a substantial number might also fall into categories not considered in this assessment.
Comparing these numbers to the total U.S. employee population in 2009, which stood at 145 million, we find that 16 million workers were in establishments known to have experienced a dust explosion over the past 28 years. This means that approximately 11% of the entire U.S. workforce was employed in an industry or under a NAICS code with a recorded dust explosion incident within that period.
These statistics offer insight into the market size, with about 11% having a known dust explosion incident over the last 28 years. It’s worth noting that the figures might vary if analyzed based on establishment size, market share value, or other factors. But in terms of employees, the data indicates that just over 10% of the United States workforce has been employed in a facility with a known record of dust explosion incidents between 1980 and 2008.
What’s the Global Market Size?
The information we’ve discussed gives us a rough estimation of the market size in the United States, and we’ll explore our confidence in these numbers shortly. But first, let’s consider what we think the market size might be globally.
We’ve addressed this topic on the podcast before, referencing a paper titled “Dust Explosions: A Threat to the Process Industries,” published in Process Safety Environmental Protection in 2015, Volume 98. Authored by Yuan, Khazkad, Khan, and Dr. Paul Amyotte, the paper analyzes dust explosion incidents across various countries from 1785 to 2012.
An intriguing observation made in the paper is the suggested correlation between the number of dust explosions and a country’s GDP. It’s a logical connection: GDP is an indicator of a nation’s industrial activity, and the more industrialized a country, the higher the likelihood of dust explosion incidents. While this isn’t a flawless metric (some countries might report higher or lower numbers), it serves as a useful general marker.
By scaling the number of explosions according to a country’s GDP, you can gain insights into the pattern. For example, the United States experiences about 30 dust explosions per year, while Canada sees roughly three annually, corresponding to about one-tenth of the U.S. GDP. This proportional relationship offers a way to gauge the global market size for dust explosions, though it’s an approximation rather than an exact measure.
Let’s break down the estimation of how many employees might be impacted by dust explosion events today, both in the United States and globally. If we take the same 10% figure that we derived from the data between 1980 and 2008 and apply it to the current U.S. workforce of approximately 165 million, we find that around 18 million employees today would work in industries known to have experienced a dust explosion within that timeframe.
To expand this to a global perspective, we can use the GDP as a scaling factor. With a global GDP of about $96 trillion and a U.S. GDP of $23 trillion, the ratio between these numbers is roughly 4.1. Multiplying this factor by the 18.1 million employees in the U.S., we arrive at an estimated 75 million employees worldwide who work in industries with a known history of dust explosions, as per U.S. records from 1980 to 2008.
These figures provide an approximate idea of the global exposure level of employees to combustible dust. But we’re left with a critical question: Can we trust these numbers? Is the total market size, in fact, larger or smaller? Are we confident that all the dust explosions in the U.S. during the 28-year period were adequately recorded by the Chemical Safety Board and this specific website? The reliability of the data and the completeness of the industry coverage are fundamental considerations in assessing the true scale of the risk.
Certainly, the answer to whether all dust explosions were recorded is likely “no,” and there’s more depth to explore than what is presented in the 2023 Release of the OSHA Combustible Dust National Emphasis Program. In this newest version, around 55 NAICs codes are included, compared to around 40 in the 2009 proposal. These codes cover various industries and even introduce some new ones, like copper rolling, powder metallurgy, metal coating, welding and soldering equipment manufacturing, motor vehicle electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing, burial casket manufacturing (an unusual inclusion), and material recovery facilities, among others.
As time goes on and more explosions occur in various industries, additional NAICs codes are included in the inspection targets and in identifying industries known to face challenges with combustible dust. These adaptations by the U.S. Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA) show that our understanding of the problem continues to evolve.
An even more comprehensive approach might involve analyzing explosions worldwide, something that is beginning to gain traction in our incident database. By applying the same type of NAICs code analysis to global incidents, we could identify which codes are appearing in other countries but not yet recorded in the U.S. This absence of data is likely a matter of sheer numbers, and a more global perspective could further refine our understanding of the market size and the scope of the challenge presented by combustible dust.
The case of cotton candy provides an interesting illustration. While it may not have a specific NAICs code, there is indeed the potential for a cotton candy dust explosion. Even though there may not have been enough facilities handling cotton candy to experience such an incident, that doesn’t negate the possibility. Elements like sugars and coatings used in food manufacturing likely carry combustible dust risks.
Conclusion
The figure of 10% exposure that’s been mentioned might actually be too low. Generally speaking, we believe we might only be capturing about one-tenth of the explosions happening in the United States. With around 30 major explosions making local news each year, the real number could be at least 300 annually.
This realization significantly impacts our understanding of the market size. We might be underestimating the exposure by at least a factor of three, meaning that possibly 30% of all employees in the U.S. are working in industries that have experienced a dust explosion incident in the past. It could be even higher, but it’s challenging to determine with certainty.
What this translates to is that, in the U.S., the number of employees exposed might be closer to 50 million. Using the same GDP analysis on a global scale, the number could reach around 200 million employees working in industries that are prone to combustible dust explosion effects. This broader understanding underscores the importance of continued vigilance and research into this significant safety concern.
If you have questions about the contents of this or any other podcast episode, you can go to our ‘Questions from the Community’ page and submit a text message or video recording. We will then bring someone on to answer these questions in a future episode.
Resources mentioned
The resources mentioned in this episode are listed below.
Dust Safety Science
Combustible Dust Incident Database
Dust Safety Science Podcast
Questions from the Community
Dust Safety Academy
Dust Safety Professionals
Publications
2009 OSHA Proposed Rule For Combustible Dust
Dust Explosions: A Threat to the Process Industries
2023 Release of the OSHA Combustible Dust National Emphasis Program
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DSS239: How Big is the Market Size for Dust Explosions in the United States
